Thibodeau's Timberwolves are too young to win now
Taj Gibson was asked Monday if he's surprised his former coach, Tom Thibodeau, is off to a 6-18 start with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
"A little bit, but there's a learning curve for everybody," Gibson said. "He was just lucky with us, I guess."
Guess so. The Bulls went 62-20 during Thibodeau's first year in Chicago and lost in the Eastern Conference finals. Everyone is a little surprised by Minnesota's rough start. The match-made-in-heaven is trapped in the dungeon.
Taking a closer look at Thibodeau's task, it's easy to see what's going on. Minnesota has three talented young players averaging at least 20 points per game in Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine.
At the same, all three of those guys are 21 years old, played just one season of college basketball and have been in the NBA less than three years. It's not realistic to expect a young team to have sudden success.
Thibodeau has tried to temper expectations.
"When you took a hard look at the numbers and where we were, you knew there was a lot of work to be done," he said to The Washington Post last month. "I wasn't fooling myself going in, and as long as we're working, I'll be fine."
Heading into Tuesday's game against the Bulls at the United Center, Minnesota had lost four in a row and eight of its last nine. The Timberwolves ranked a very un-Thibodeau-like 29th in defensive field-goal percentage.
"It's a team that I think has an unbelievable future," Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said.
Looking across NBA history, there are really no examples of a team drafting five good players and growing into a championship squad. The closest might be the mid-90s Orlando Magic with Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott, but they didn't reach the Finals until adding veteran Horace Grant.
Golden State had four brilliant draft picks in the starting lineup the past two years with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, but two regulars, Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut, had been to the playoffs with other teams and the bench was full of veterans.
The Timberwolves roster is essentially home grown. Of their top 10 scorers, only one has played for another NBA team and that's little-used forward Adreian Payne. The supporting cast is made up of more Minnesota draft picks like Gorgui Dieng, Ricky Rubio, Shabazz Muhammad and Kris Dunn.
Young teams don't win in the NBA for a variety of reasons. Thibodeau's specialty has been defense, but this is a significant challenge. Imagine three young stars who never have been asked to make defense a priority. Now they have to figure it out while guarding some of the world's greatest athletes.
Then there's the eyes on the stat sheet. Coaches can preach all they want about learning to do the little things that win games. The players know the big scorers get the biggest contracts. And these guys are already 21-year-old millionaires, which brings an endless set of potential distractions.
On the court, the Timberwolves have some problems that are easy to identify. They are terrible in the third quarter. A common storyline is they get off to an early lead, then give it all back.
"I think it's just a lack of concentration," Towns said in The Washington Post.
Point guards are another issue. Rubio has never developed an outside shot. He's at 36.1 percent overall this season and an awful 22.2 percent from 3-point range. Dunn, a rookie, is not much better.
That's not to say Thibodeau's Timberwolves couldn't improve over the course of the season. Remember the Scott Skiles-coached Bulls of 2004-05 started 3-14 and finished with a top-four playoff seed.
Realistically, Minnesota needs to surround the Fab Three with a couple veterans. There was chatter about the Timberwolves trying to trade for Jimmy Butler last summer. Don't be surprised if Thibodeau pursues Taj Gibson as a free agent in 2017. Replacing Rubio with a veteran point guard seems inevitable.
"For us, we really didn't have to adjust (to Thibodeau) because we were already a hard-nosed team," Gibson said. "We really bought into what he wanted us to do. Not every team is capable of doing that, especially with the way the NBA is and how players are selfish these days."
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Scouting report
Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves at United Center, 7 p.m. Tuesday
TV: WGN, ESPN
Radio: WLS 890-AM
Outlook: Besides the return of coach Tom Thibodeau, this game will bring some of the league's brightest young stars to town. SF Andrew Wiggins leads the Timberwolves at 22.2 ppg, while C Karl Anthony Towns is averaging 21.6 points and 10.8 rebounds. Dunk champ Zach LaVine has boosted his scoring average to 20.4 ppg. Like the Bulls, a reliable bench might be Minnesota's downfall. The Timberwolves (6-18) have lost eight of nine and four in a row and rank 29th in the league in defensive field-goal percentage. The Bulls lost both games vs. Minnesota last season.
Next: Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center, 7 p.m. Thursday
- Mike McGraw